This paper addresses the question of how to measure market participants’ intra-day risk-neutral expectations. In contrast to widely used quotes data, we present a novel step-by-step approach to estimate intra-day risk-neutral densities (RND) by only using option trades data. Based on a unique...

There has been substantial research effort aimed to forecast futures price return volatilities of financial and commodity assets. Some part of this research focuses on the performance of time-series models (in particular ARCH models) versus option implied volatility models. A significant part of...

Increasing interconnectivity between electricity wholesale markets requires an efficient allocation scheme in order to provide access to scarce cross-border transmission capacities. The explicit schemes have primarily induced economically inefficient interconnector use given that flows have to...

In order to increase overall transparency on key operational information, power transmission system operators publish an increasing amount of fundamental data, including forecasts of electricity demand and available capacity. We develop a fundamental model for electricity prices which lends...

We investigate the relationship between the gas spot market and the price of gas storage capacity. Contrary to the common belief, the auction prices for gas storage are mostly affected by the volatility of current market prices rather than by the winter-summer price differences. This paper...

This paper develops a lattice method for option evaluation in the presence of regime shifts in the correlation structure of assets, aiming at investigating whether the option prices reflect such shifts. Specifically we try to investigate whether option prices reflect switches in the correlation...

We consider the Schwartz 97 two and three factor models, which have been considered as benchmarks for pricing commodity derivatives in the last two decades. In order to take account of sudden regime shifts in commodity prices, we superimpose a regime shifting structure onto this framework. Using...

This paper develops a closed-form model for options on commodities under the assumptions of mean-reversion in the commodity prices and regime-switching in the commodity returns volatility. After a closed-form solution for the option value in constant regimes has been developed, the model is...

There is a set of corporate situations, when there is an exchange of one asset for another, for example, the offer on an exchange of corporate securities. Special case of such offer is the exchange the preferred share which are available for the company on ordinary share. Application of models...