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We estimate a general microstructure model of the transitory and permanent impact of order flow on stock prices. Jumps are detected in both the transaction price (observation equation) and fundamental value (state equation). The model's parameters and variances are updated in real time. Prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010256970
If the intensity parameter in a jump diffusion model is identically zero, then parameters characterizing the jump size density cannot be identified. In general, this lack of identification precludes consistent estimation of identified parameters. Hence, it should be standard practice to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010361470
In this paper, we fill a gap in the financial econometrics literature, by developing a “jump test” for the null hypothesis that the probability of a jump is zero. The test is based on realized third moments, and uses observations over an increasing time span. The test offers an alternative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012952731
and portfolios. We document that the SDF is dense in characteristics with the impliedrealized volatility spread, option …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015204018
This paper presents the first comparison of the accuracy of density forecasts for stock prices. Six sets of forecasts are evaluated for DJIA stocks, across four forecast horizons. Two forecasts are risk-neutral densities implied by the Black-Scholes and Heston models. The third set are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970479
function to maturity that satisfies the consistency condition, the European volatility smile is obtained. As an illustration of … the formalism, we show that when the underlying asset price changes at constant volatility (standard deviation), the … offer a parameterization of the volatility smile with a closed-form expression using pre-calculated tables. Comprehensive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012914760
We propose model-free (nonparametric) estimators of the volatility of volatility and leverage effect using high … characteristic function of the price increment until the options’ expiration and we use these estimates to recover spot volatility …. Our volatility of volatility estimator is then formed from the sample variance and first-order autocovariance of the spot …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350726
volatility measures and estimators applied in the process of valuation. We calculate the Black model with historical (BHV …), implied (BIV) and several different types of realized (BRV) volatility (additionally searching for the optimal interval Δ, and …. Applying different volatility processes for the same pricing model suggest strongly that point-estimate, not averaged process …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125627
check the properties of option pricing models with different assumptions concerning the volatility process (historical … pricing and to check the robustness of our results. The Black model with implied volatility (BIV) comes as the best model and … the realized volatility model as the worst one. Moreover, we do not see any advantage of much complex and time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013125708
) the statistical properties of the Korea's representative implied volatility index (VKOSPI) derived from the KOSPI 200 … options and (b) macroeconomic and financial variables that can predict the implied volatility process of the index, using … the VKOSPI. In addition, we find that the stock market return and implied volatility index of the US market (i.e., the S …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478493