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metal price series is investigated, as well as time-varying volatility. The results demonstrate that allowing for jumps and … time-varying volatility provides statistically important improvements in the modelling or prices, relative to GBM. These …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012038566
This paper investigates price jumps in commodity markets. We find that jumps are rare and extreme events but occur less frequently than in stock markets. Nonetheless, jump correlations across commodities can be high depending on the commodity sectors. Energy, metal and grains commodities show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900597
The contemporary refining sector has to contend with many types of risks, among which price risk is considered to be the foremost. Moreover, refineries define it as a commodity risk and identify it with both opportunities and threats carried by changes in prices of crude oil and products of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012027171
We estimate a general microstructure model of the transitory and permanent impact of order flow on stock prices. Jumps are detected in both the transaction price (observation equation) and fundamental value (state equation). The model's parameters and variances are updated in real time. Prices...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010256970
virtually any stochastic volatility model model can be approximated arbitrarily well by a carefully chosen continuous time … illustrates these contributions of the paper, estimating a stochastic volatility jump diffusion model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014099175
This paper presents the first comparison of the accuracy of density forecasts for stock prices. Six sets of forecasts are evaluated for DJIA stocks, across four forecast horizons. Two forecasts are risk-neutral densities implied by the Black-Scholes and Heston models. The third set are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970479
function to maturity that satisfies the consistency condition, the European volatility smile is obtained. As an illustration of … the formalism, we show that when the underlying asset price changes at constant volatility (standard deviation), the … offer a parameterization of the volatility smile with a closed-form expression using pre-calculated tables. Comprehensive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012914760
This paper evaluates the application of two well-known asymmetric stochastic volatility (ASV) models to option price … forecasting and dynamic delta hedging. They are specified in discrete time in contrast to the classical stochastic volatility (SV … volatility asymmetry on option pricing. The objectives of this paper are to estimate ASV option pricing models using a Bayesian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904114
This study compares the efficacy of Black–Scholes implied volatility (BSIV) with model-free implied volatility (MFIV …) in providing volatility forecasts for 13 North American, European, and Asian stock market indexes: S&P 500 (United States … Kingdom). In-sample volatility forecasts show that both BSIV and MFIV significantly improve the fit of a GJR-GARCH(1,1) model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905621
models with time varying volatility. In this paper we consider models of this class and examine their potential when it comes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013143256