The slope of the implied volatility term structure is positively related to future option returns. We rank firms based on the slope of the volatility term structure and analyze the returns for straddle portfolios. Straddle portfolios with high slopes of the volatility term structure outperform...

Implicit in industry standard option pricing models is the expectation that roughly 25% of stocks with 60% consistent volatility will septuple within 10 years, an extraordinary rate of appreciation. The exceptionally high equilibrium anticipated returns for an improbably large percentage of high...

Seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) typically provide investors with information, or signals, that are stock price relevant. This information, however, is generally intangible, meaning market participants have incomplete knowledge about its quality. Investors thus tend to regard it as ambiguous. To...

We discuss the finding that cross-sectional characteristic based models have yielded portfolios with higher excess monthly returns but lower risk than their arbitrage pricing theory counterparts in an analysis of equity returns of stocks listed on the JSE. Under the assumption of general...

We explore the pricing performance of Support Vector Regression for pricing S&P 500 index call options. Support Vector Regression is a novel nonparametric methodology that has been developed in the context of statistical learning theory and until now it has been practically neglected in...

An exercise boundary violation (EBV) occurs when the current bid price for an American option in the market is below intrinsic value. A seller at this price leaves money on the table and the buyer receives an arbitrage profit. In a liquid market, competition among dealers should drive up the bid...

We derive the theoretical relation between the term structure of implied variance and the expected excess returns of the underlying asset. Adopting three alternative approaches to compile the variables representing the information on the implied volatility index level and term structure, we show...

This article explores the role of the realized return distribution in the formation of the observed implied volatility smile using the framework of an adaptive expectations model. According to this framework investors update their expectations of future events, through which options are priced,...

We compile option-implied tail loss and gain measures based on a deep out-of-the- money option pricing formula derived by applying ‘extreme value theory', and then use these measures to investigate the information content of option-implied tail risk on the future returns of the underlying...