Finance researchers keep producing increasingly complex and computationally-intensive models of stock returns. Separately, professional analysts forecast stock returns daily for their clients. Are the sophisticated methods of researchers achieving better forecasts or are we better off relying on...

I introduce a model to estimate the risk-neutral density. Current estimation techniques use a single mathematical model to interpolate option prices on two option dimensions: strike price and time-to maturity (TTM). I propose to use B-splines with at-the-money knots for the strike price...