We study the term structure of variance (total risk), systematic and idiosyncratic risk. Consistent with the expectations hypothesis, we find that, for the entire market, the slope of the term structure of variance is mainly informative about the path of future variance. Thus, there is little...

This paper introduces a new jump diffusion process where the occurrence and the size of past jumps have an impact on both the instantaneous and the long term propensities of observing a jump instantaneously. Here, the intensity of jump arrival is a multifactor self-excited process whereas the...

Option-implied betas are a promising alternative to historical beta estimators, because they are inherently forward-looking and can incorporate new information immediately and fully. Recently, different implied beta estimators have been developed in previous literature, but very little is known...

Throughout the paper, investment portfolios which consist of assets with variance-gamma, gamma and deterministically distributed returns are considered. We derive formulas which characterize the impact of a particular asset on the risks and gains of the portfolio. Namely, we obtain analytical...

This paper examines continuous-time models for the S&P 100 index and its constituents. We find that the jump process of the typical stock looks significantly different than that of the index. Most importantly, the average size of a jumps in the returns of the typical stock is positive, while it...

We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...