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of the parameters driving the risk-neutral conditional distributions and term structure of volatility, thereby enhancing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010256394
significantly explain differences in the implied volatility surface (IVS) across stocks. Motivated by this finding, we model the IVS …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014254814
The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010459730
We propose a novel factor model for option returns. Option exposures are estimated nonparametrically and factor risk premia can vary nonlinearly with states. The model is estimated using regressions, with minimal assumptions on factor and option return dynamics. Using index options, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013213854
The detrended implied volatility of commodity options (VOL) forecasts the cross section of the commodity futures … return of 12.66% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.69. Notably, the excess returns based on the volatility strategy emanate mainly from … illiquidity, other commodity pricing factors, and exposure to the aggregate commodity market volatility. The VOL measure is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014122276
We introduce a discrete-time model for log-return dynamics with observable volatility and jumps. Our proposal extends … the class of Realized Volatility heterogeneous auto-regressive gamma (HARG) processes adding a jump component with time … compensating for equity, volatility, and jump risks, the generating function under the risk-neutral measure inherits analytical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904165
most useful for improving their out-of-sample performance. Portfolio performance is measured in terms of volatility, Sharpe … ratio, and turnover. Our empirical evidence shows that using option-implied volatility helps to reduce portfolio volatility …. Using option-implied correlation does not improve any of the metrics. Using option-implied volatility, risk-premium, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013116788
I empirically investigate whether macroeconomic uncertainty is a priced risk factor in the cross-section of equity and index option returns. The analysis employs a non-linear factor model, estimated with the Fama-MacBeth methodology, where the macroeconomic uncertainty factor is the return on a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013097881
We introduce a stochastic volatility model with self-exciting jump intensity to capture the change in pricing dynamic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088630
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098