While co-integration theory is an ideal framework to study linear relationships among persistent economic time series, the intrinsic linearity in the concepts of integration and co-integration makes it unsuitable to study non-linear long run relations among persistent processes. This drawback...

We study the problem of a firm that faces asymmetric information about the productivity of its potential workers. In our framework, a worker’s productivity is either assigned by nature at birth, or determined by an unobservable initial action of the worker that has persistent effects over...

Predictive regressions are linear specifications linking a noisy variable such as stock returns to past values of a more persistent regressor such as valuation ratios, interest rates etc with the aim of assessing the presence or absence of predictability. Key complications that arise when...

The aim of this paper is to identify permanent and transitory shocks. This identification is done according to the size of the shocks or the size of some other important economic variable. In order to be able to carry this identification scheme on, we introduce a new class of threshold models:...

Predictive regressions are linear specifications linking a noisy variable such as stock returns to past values of a more persistent regressor with the aim of assessing the presence of predictability. Key complications that arise are the potential presence of endogeneity and the poor adequacy of...