Changing time series properties of US inflation and economic activity, measured as marginal costs, are modeled within a set of extended Phillips Curve (PC) models. It is shown that mechanical removal or modeling of simple low frequency movements in the data may yield poor predictive results...

In many forward-looking macroeconomic models, such as the New Keynesian model, firms' expectations about the future play a key role in determining outcomes today. We examine this hypothesis using a novel panel dataset on firms actual and expected price changes collected by the Confederation of...

The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts...