This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates forecasts from time- and frequency-domain models. Frequency-domain models excel at capturing long-term trends while also accounting for short-term fluctuations. Combining these...

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates forecasts from time- and frequency-domain models. Frequency-domain models excel at capturing long-term trends while also accounting for short-term fluctuations. Combining these...

This paper introduces the reader into the apparatus behind the popular New Keynesian Phillips (NKPC) curve. It derives several log-linear versions of this curve and recursive formulations of the Calvo-Yun price staggeringmodel that is behind this curve. These formulations can be used for...

We estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the USA from 1997 to 2019 using expected inflation from financial instruments. We use a spliced series comprised of the TIPS spread and inflation swaps. Empirical tests find higher coefficients on backward-looking inflation than forward-looking,...

We develop a parsimonious New Keynesian macro-finance model with downward nominal rigidities to understand secular and cyclical movements in Treasury bond premia. Downward nominal rigidities create state-dependence in output and inflation dynamics: a higher level of inflation makes prices more...

We develop a parsimonious New Keynesian macro-finance model with downward nominal rigidities to understand secular and cyclical movements in Treasury bond premia. Downward nominal rigidities create state-dependence in output and inflation dynamics: a higher level of inflation makes prices more...

Over the past decade, inflation has become less responsive to domestic demand pressures in many industrial countries. This development has been attributed, in part, to globalization forces. A small macroeconomic model, estimated on UK data using Bayesian estimation, is used to analyze the...

The low rate of inflation observed in the U.S. over the past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of labor market slack. We develop a theory-based indicator of interfirm wage competition that can explain the missing inflation. Key to this result is a drop in the rate of...

This paper provides an empirical comparison of the sticky-price and the sticky information Phillips curves on the basis of second moments of inflation for six countries, the US, the UK, Germany, France, Canada, and Japan. We evaluate the models' abilities to match empirical second moments of...

This paper empirically compares sticky-price and sticky-information Phillips curves considering inflation dynamics in six countries (US, UK, Germany, France, Canada, and Japan). We evaluate the models' abilities to match empirical second moments of inflation. Under baseline calibrations, the two...