Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections since 1952. We envision a...

Recent social movements stand out by their spontaneous nature and lack of stable leadership, raising doubts on their ability to generate political change. This article provides systematic evidence on the effects of protests on public opinion and political attitudes. Drawing on a database...

We ask how childhood environment shapes political behavior. We measure young voters' participation and party affiliation in nationally comprehensive voter files and reconstruct their childhood location histories based on their parents' addresses. We compare outcomes of individuals who moved...