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Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno; Prokopczuk, Marcel; Wese Simen, … - 2017

is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are … mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail risk. World fear is also priced in the crosssection of stock returns …. Buying stocks with high sensitivities to World Fear while selling stocks with low sensitivities generates excess returns of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011751251

International Stock Return Predictability : The Role of U.S. Volatility Risk

Deng, Yizhe; Jiang, Fuwei; Wang, Yunqi; Zhou, Ti - 2022

This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We … show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and … robust to the inclusion of existing domestic and U.S. predictors and alternative U.S. volatility risk proxies. The …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236052

Portfolio Return Prediction and Risk Price Heterogeneity

Taylor, Nicholas - 2023

A model of portfolio return dynamics is considered in which the price of risk is permitted to be heterogeneous. In doing this, a novel method is proposed that delivers improved out-of-sample forecasts of portfolio returns. The main innovation is the use of a set of predictors that account for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350699

Behavioral Finance - Asset Prices Predictability, Equity Premium Puzzle, Volatility Puzzle : The Rational Finance Approach

Rachev, Svetlozar T. - 2020

) The Volatility Puzzle. We offer resolutions of those objections within the rational finance. We do not claim that those …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842392

The contribution of frictions to expected returns

Hirakiy, Kazuhiro; Skiadopoulos, George - 2018

We derive a model-free option-based formula to estimate the contribution of market frictions to expected returns (CFER) within an asset pricing setting. We estimate CFER for the U.S. optionable stocks. We document that CFER is sizable, it predicts stock returns and it subsumes the effect of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932555

Global variance term premia and intermediary risk appetite

Van Tassel, Peter; Vogt, Erik - 2016

Sellers of variance swaps earn time-varying risk premia for their exposure to realized variance, the level of variance swap rates, and the slope of the variance swap curve. To measure risk premia, we estimate a dynamic term structure model that decomposes variance swap rates into expected...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523781

Long run returns predictability and volatility with moving averages

Chang, Chia-Lin; Ilomäki, Jukka; Laurila, Hannu; … - In: Risks : open access journal 6 (2018) 4, pp. 1-18

This paper examines how the size of the rolling window, and the frequency used in moving average (MA) trading strategies, affects financial performance when risk is measured. We use the MA rule for market timing, that is, for when to buy stocks and when to shift to the risk-free rate. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011906234

Systemic default and return predictability in the stock and bond markets

Bao, Jack; Hou, Kewei; Zhang, Shaojun - 2016

Using a structural model of default, we construct a measure of systemic default defined as the probability that many firms default at the same time. We account for correlations in defaults between firms through exposures to common shocks. The systemic default measure spikes during recession...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011810905

Unemployment fluctuations and the predictability of currency returns

Nucera, Federico - 2015 - This version: August 2015

We investigate if unemployment fluctuations generate predictability in the cross-section of currency excess returns. To assess the predictability exerted by unemployment fluctuations, we sort currencies according to past growth in the unemployment rate. We find that an investment strategy which...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015408806

Instability of Factor Strength in Asset Returns

Massacci, Daniele - 2022

We study the problem of detecting structural instability of factor strength in asset pricing models for financial returns. We allow for strong and weaker factors, in which the sum of squared betas grows at a rate equal to and slower than the number of test assets, respectively: this growth rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013311483