Employing a large number of financial indicators, we use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to forecast real-time measures of economic activity. The indicators include credit spreads based on portfolios -- constructed directly from the secondary market prices of outstanding bonds -- sorted by...

The recent global financial crisis has shown portfolio correlations between agents as one of the key channels of risk contagion and amplification. In this work, we analyse the structure and dynamics of the cross-correlation matrix of banks' loan portfolios in the yearly bank-firm credit network...

This study develops a novel method for mitigating credit risk through the use of structured derivatives, focusing in particular on the use of European put options as a strategic hedging tool. Inspired by the work of Merton (1974), our approach introduces the concept of default triggered by the...