The consensus wisdom of active mutual fund managers, as reflected in their average over- and underweighting decisions, contains valuable information about future stock returns. Analyzing a comprehensive sample of active U.S. equity funds 1984-2008, we find that stocks heavily overweighted by...

Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....

The average alpha of mutual funds is an indication of whether it pays off to invest in actively managed funds. In this study we show that a substantial part of the variation in the average alpha can be explained by exogenous factors. The most important factors are the average expense ratio, the...