Does the observed relationship between mutual fund flows and recent performance represent irrational “return chasing” or rational learning about unobserved fund manager skill in the presence of decreasing returns to scale? We estimate a structural model of investor beliefs implicit in the...

We study a dynamic equilibrium model of mutual fund investing under career concerns that features investment opportunities at different horizons. Equilibrium returns are endogenously determined by competition. Short-term investment strategies can benefit fund managers by accelerating skill...

Value stocks covary with aggregate consumption more than growth stocks during periods when financial wealth is low relative to consumption. However, the conditional value premium does not exhibit such countercyclical behavior. Consequently, a one-factor conditional consumption-based asset...