We decompose the variance risk premium into upside and downside variance risk premia. These components reflect market compensation for changes in good and bad uncertainties. Their difference is a measure of the skewness risk premium (SRP), which captures asymmetric views on favorable versus...

We evaluate whether machine learning methods can better model excess portfolio returns compared to the standard regression-based strategies generally used in the finance and econometric literature. We examine 17 benchmark factor model specifications based on Expected Utility Theory and theory...

This paper studies portfolio optimization through improvements of ex-ante conditional covariance estimates. We use the cross-section of stock returns over a 52-year sample to analyze trading performance by implementing the machine learning algorithm of hierarchical clustering. We find that...

This paper provides evidence that reference price distributions can predict stocks' expected returns. We develop a model based on the disposition effect by considering shareholders' trading activities with different relative capital gains. The model suggests that both disposition-prone...

This paper shed light to the existence of momentum and reversal patterns in the 18 industry indexes of DJ Euro Stoxx. The analysis is focus on European market and test a presence structural break in year 2000 (financial services and markets act). We made an analysis of five portfolios over eight...

Two-pass cross sectional regression (TPCSR) is frequently used in estimating factor risk premiums. Recent papers argue that the common practice of grouping assets into portfolios to reduce the errors-in-variables (EIV) problem leads to loss of efficiency and masks potential deviations from asset...

This paper decomposes firm-specific monthly-varying Amihud (2002) illiquidity measure into two components: (i) systematic illiquidity; (ii) idiosyncratic illiquidity. While there is a positive and significant relationship between systematic illiquidity and one-month-ahead stock returns, the...

A prominent factor used in most models predicting stock returns is firm size. Yet no consensus has emerged on the magnitude and stability of the size premium, with some researchers even questioning the usefulness of the factor. To take stock of the voluminous academic literature on the size...

Empirical measures of world consumption growth risk have failed to rationalize the cross-section of country equity returns. We propose a new factor, termed "the global consumption factor", to explain the patterns in risk premiums on international equity markets. We identify this factor as the...

We derive a model-free option-based formula to estimate the contribution of market frictions to expected returns (CFER) within an asset pricing setting. We estimate CFER for the U.S. optionable stocks. We document that CFER is sizable, it predicts stock returns and it subsumes the effect of...