This paper examines the role of earnings quality in the future performance of firms that marginally miss or beat analysts' forecasts. We focus primarily on two groups of firms: those that miss their forecast but appear not to have attempted to exceed it by managing earnings, and those that...

This paper examines the performance consequences of cutting discretionary expenditures and managing accruals to exceed analyst forecasts. We show that firms that just beat analyst forecasts with low quality earnings exhibit a short-term stock price benefit relative to firms that miss forecasts...

XVA models for the calculation of CVA, FVA (see for example (Burgard and Kjaer 2013)), KVA(Green, Kenyon, and Dennis 2014), MVA (Green and Kenyon 2014) and TVA (Kenyon and Green 2014a) have frequently been formulated at the counterparty level. However, it is clear that some elements of the...

Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...

The concept of bond duration was originally introduced by Macaulay (1938) and nowadays is well- established in the fixed-income literature. In this paper, I lift the same concepts from the fixed-income asset class and apply them to equities. I derive three candidate models for estimating the...

This paper contrasts the valuation of accounting numbers related to two classes of assets - the internally managed, fully-controlled assets versus the "significant influence" investments, that is, investments where the investing firm exercises influence, but not control, over the assets. We find...

Using a simulation analysis based on historical U.S. stock market returns, we assess the total tax burden (federal plus state) of active portfolio management. Our results show that taxes can erode a large portion of the profits, even for moderately intense trading strategies where the capital...

This study documents the prominent role of idiosyncratic risk in impeding arbitrage activities with regard to a new value-to-price anomaly. Adopting the theoretical foundation and empirical specification of Hwang and Sohn's (2010) real-option-based valuation model, we measure the intrinsic value...

Securities selection attempts to distinguish prospective winners from losers conditional on beliefs and available information. This article surveys relevant academic research on this subject, including work about the combining of forecasts (Bates and Granger 1969), the Black-Litterman model...

This paper assesses the extent to which the disaggregated book-tax differences (BTDs) detailed in the tax footnote are associated with earnings persistence and growth, and the extent to which these associations matter to investors. Using hand-collected data from the schedule of deferred tax...