Predictable biases in analyst forecasts, both conservative and optimistic, distort share prices, but only for firms with hard-to-forecast earnings---those with extreme past returns, credit risk, idiosyncratic volatility, and other attributes linked to 14 popular anomalies. The prevalence of...

Classifying mandatory 13F stock-holding filings by manager type reveals that hedge fund strategies are mostly contrarian, while mutual fund strategies are largely trend following. The only institutional performers — the 2/3 of hedge fund managers that are contrarian — earn alpha of 2.4% per...

Classifying mandatory 13F stockholding filings by manager type reveals that hedge fund strategies are mostly contrarian, while mutual fund strategies are largely trend following. The only institutional performers---the 2/3 of hedge fund managers that are contrarian---earn alpha of 2.4% per year....

Cross-sectional forecasts of conservative and optimistic biases in analyst earnings estimates predict a stock's future returns, especially for firms that are hard to value. Trading strategies--whether based on the component of analyst bias that is correlated with major return anomalies or the...

We develop a structural model where joint dynamics of aggregate consumption and asset-specific dividends are governed by correlated state-variables. The correlation structure implies distinct cross-sectional exposures of dividends to long history of consumption growth rates, resulting in...

This paper proposes and implements an inter-temporal model wherein aggregate consumption and asset-specific dividend growths jointly move with two mean-reverting state variables. Consumption beta varies through time and cross sectionally due to variation in half-lives and stationary volatilities...

This paper proposes a structural approach to long-horizon asset allocation. In particular, the investor draws inferences about asset returns from a vector autoregression (VAR) with economic restrictions on the intercept, slope, and covariance matrix implied by the long-run risk model of Bansal...