We combine self-collected historical data from 1867 to 1907 with CRSP data from 1926 to 2012, to examine the risk and return over the past 140 years of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies — momentum. We find that momentum has earned abnormally high risk-adjusted returns — a...

Value-at-risk (VaR) is a useful risk measure broadly used by financial institutions all over the world. VaR has been extensively used to measure systematic risk exposure in developed markets like of the US, Europe and Asia. This paper analyzes the accuracy of VaR measure for Pakistan's emerging...

In this paper I examine whether one can use analyst forecasts of macroeconomic variables to improve investors ex-ante allocation of wealth between stocks and bonds. Such forecasts provide a forward-looking approach which I find improves investor's information set for the myopic stock-bond...

The experimental approach is applied to explore the value of unidentified historical information in stock-return prediction. Return sequences were randomly drawn cross section and time from historical S&P500 data. Subjects were requested to predict returns or select stocks from 12 preceding...

Extreme asset price movements appear to be more pronounced recently and have major consequences for an economy's financial stability and monetary policies. This paper investigates the extreme behaviour of equity market returns and quantifies the probabilities of these losses. Taking fourteen...

In investment, particularly in the portfolio management, the risk and returns are two crucial measures in making investment decisions. This paper attempts to provide a brief theoretical explanation with examples on determining the returns and associated risk of shares, and of the portfolio of...

This paper examines the momentum strategy in Australia under the debate on whether momentum strategy is profitable in Australia. It studies both the price and alpha momentum strategy performance under several lookback periods, and applies short position adjustment and volatility scaling. I...

This paper provides evidence that reference price distributions can predict stocks' expected returns. We develop a model based on the disposition effect by considering shareholders' trading activities with different relative capital gains. The model suggests that both disposition-prone...

In this paper, we use stock price data between the years 2007 and 2010 to investigate the allocation of assets on the GSE. The Classical Markowitz optimization method shows that, the most profitable portfolio is obtained by investing 90% of wealth in non-financial assets and 10% in financial...

Recently, alpha and risk factor volatility have reached extremes. In this study we examine the risk and return relationships of value and momentum, which we believe have shifted. We find that market risk, or beta, correlations for both factors have reversed and have resulted to changes and...