While Gorton and Rouwenhorst (2005) suggest using business cycle in tactical asset allocation with commodity futures, Jensen et al (2002) suggest using monetary policy in guiding the timing of investment. We investigate whether it is useful to watch both.We find that clever timing in asset...

Perold (2007) shows that, given a diffuse prior that is being updated in light of a noisy market price, the posterior distribution says that value-weighting and equal-weighting one's portfolio makes no difference. We argue that the diffuse prior is hard to reconcile with reality and that a...