This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with market uncertainty. During calm periods, the underlying risk forecast models...

Bilateral derivatives valuation is subject to counterparty credit risk (CCR) in that a counterparty could jump to default or its credit spread could vary over time. In the nomenclature of risk management, the former is called CCR exposure and the later leads to credit valuation adjustment (CVA)....

This paper studies the relationship between the riskiness of banks' assets and their average risk weight. Banks' initial risk weights explain about half of the variation in projected credit losses in the 2018 European Banking Authority stress test. In contrast to related papers, this paper also...

This paper deals with stress tests for credit risk and shows how exploiting the discretion when setting up and implementing a model can drive the results of a quantitative stress test for default probabilities. For this purpose, we employ several variations of a CreditPortfolioView-style model...

The internal ratings-based (IRB) approach maps banks’ risk profiles more adequately than the standardized approach. After switching to IRB, banks’ risk-weighted asset (RWA) densities are thus expected to diverge, especially across countries with different supervisory strictness and risk...

The internal ratings-based (IRB) approach maps bank risk profiles more adequately than the standardized approach. After switching to IRB, banks' risk-weighted asset (RWA) densities are thus expected to diverge, especially across countries with different supervisory strictness and risk levels....

We propose a new method for analysing multi-period stress scenarios for portfolio credit risk more systematically than in the current practice of macro stress testing. Our method quantifies the plausibility of scenarios by considering the distance of the stress scenario from an average scenario....

The majority of industry credit portfolio risk models, as well as recent scientific results, are based on isolated modules for default probabilities and recoveries in the event of default. This paper shows that these common methods lead to various econometric drawbacks when the parameters are...

This paper analyzes the level and cyclicality of bank capital requirement in relation to (i) the model methodologies through-the-cycle and point-in-time, (ii) four distinct downturn loss rate given default concepts, and (iii) US corporate and mortgage loans. The major finding is that less...

Credit risk is an important issue in many finance areas, such as the determination of cost of capital, the valuation of corporate bonds and pricing of credit derivatives. Credit risk has also been a cause and consequence of the current financial crisis. Thus, methods for measuring credit risk,...