We provide a simple exercise for the real growth rate of GDP in 2020 in Portugal, with three alternative scenarios: pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic, with the range for real growth between -5.8% and -3.9%. Of particular relevance is private consumption and investment, with households...

With a new quarterly dataset we estimate a Bayesian Structural Autoregression model and a Fully Simultaneous System approach to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Results show that positive government spending shocks, in general, have a negative effect on real GDP; lead to...

The main focus of this paper is the relation between the cyclical components of total revenues and expenditures and the budget balance in France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain. We try to uncover past trends behind the development of public finances that contribute to explaining the current stance...