Option prices can be used to infer the level of uncertainty about future asset prices. The first two parts of this article explain such measures (implied volatility) and how they can differ from the market's true expectation of uncertainty. The third then estimates the implied volatility of...

This paper finds that standard asset pricing models fail to explain the significantly positive delta hedging errors from writing options on foreign exchange futures. Foreign exchange volatility does influence stock returns, however. The volatility of the JPY/USD exchange rate predicts the time...

This paper tests the small sample properties of Hansen's (1982) Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on simulated data from a consumption based asset pricing model. In finite samples the estimates of the coefficient of relative risk aversion and the discount parameter are strongly biased due to...

This paper reexamines the small sample properties of Hansen's (1982) Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Hansen and Jagannathan's (1989) estimation-free tests on simulated data from a more plausible consumption based asset pricing model. Previous studies are incomplete and misleading. A...

This paper derives a formula for the optimal forecast of a discounted sum of future values of a random variable. This problem reflects a preference for robustness in the presence of (unstructured) model uncertainty. The paper shows that revisions of a robust forecast are more sensitive to new...

We develop an overlapping generations model of the real estate market in which search frictions and a debt overhang combine to generate price persistence and illiquidity. Illiquidity stems from heterogeneity in agent real estate valuations. The variance of agent valuations determines how quickly...

We construct a 2 sector growth model with sector specific technology shocks where one sector produces intermediate goods while the other produces final goods. Theoretical restrictions from this model are used to compute the time series for sector-specific TFPs based solely on factor prices and...