graphing tools are used, such as, probability paper and different specifications of exponential functions representing … cumulative probability distributions. The argument is that traditional time-series analysis implies a given universe, usually …

graphing tools are used, such as, probability paper and different specifications of exponential functions representing … cumulative probability distributions. The argument is that traditional time-series analysis implies a given universe, usually …

De Finetti's treatise on the theory of probability begins with the provocative statement PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST …, meaning that probability does not exist in an objective sense. Rather, probability exists only subjectively within the minds … well as on beliefs. Most later authors, from Savage onward, have attempted to disentangle beliefs from values by …

, AER). The model supposes that players maximize subject to their "beliefs" which are non-probabilistic and scalar …

is expressed as probability of exceedance of continuous streamflow amounts. An exceedance probability forecast is … this generic approach to making an exceedance probability forecast can be used on any predictors and predictands. …

Recent psychological research has investigated how people assess the probability of an indicative conditional. Most … people give the conditional probability of q given p as the probability of if p then q. Asking about the probability of an …

In terms of risk measurement, probability and quantile risk estimation have developed enormously in the past decade … their risk profile accounting for losses (quantiles) at a given likelihood (probability) and a given time frame (holding … series to model the tail returns, allowing them to examine low-probability (out-of-sample) events for single-period horizons …

Teaching probability can be challenging because the mathematical formulas often are too abstract and complex for the … example, the game of roulette can be an exciting application for teaching probability concepts. In this paper, we implement a … to gain better insights into the corresponding probability structures. We use the model to simulate a particular betting …