arguments as to why the “orthodox” statistician claims that normality is necessary. One is to enable probability interpretations …. The truth is that, even under normality, the usual probability interpretations are meaningless in practice and that, in … very similar over a wide range of differently‐shaped probability distributions.  …

is expressed as probability of exceedance of continuous streamflow amounts. An exceedance probability forecast is … this generic approach to making an exceedance probability forecast can be used on any predictors and predictands. …

Recent psychological research has investigated how people assess the probability of an indicative conditional. Most … people give the conditional probability of q given p as the probability of if p then q. Asking about the probability of an …

In terms of risk measurement, probability and quantile risk estimation have developed enormously in the past decade … their risk profile accounting for losses (quantiles) at a given likelihood (probability) and a given time frame (holding … series to model the tail returns, allowing them to examine low-probability (out-of-sample) events for single-period horizons …

Teaching probability can be challenging because the mathematical formulas often are too abstract and complex for the … example, the game of roulette can be an exciting application for teaching probability concepts. In this paper, we implement a … to gain better insights into the corresponding probability structures. We use the model to simulate a particular betting …

generally guided by call-put option pricing models - which rely on an ergodic notion of probability that conforms to a normal … distribution function. This paper considers critiques of the above models, which include Keynes's Treatise on Probability (1921 … of probability. …

exclusive subjective evidence, the use of probability in individual cases, the right to clear information, the office for …

graphing tools are used, such as, probability paper and different specifications of exponential functions representing … cumulative probability distributions. The argument is that traditional time-series analysis implies a given universe, usually …