Decision and risk analysts have considerable discretion in designing procedures for eliciting subjective probabilities. One of the most popular approaches is to specify a particular set of exclusive and exhaustive events for which the assessor provides such judgments. We show that assessed...

Decision and risk analysts have considerable discretion in designing procedures for eliciting subjective probabilities. One popular approach is to specify a particular set of exclusive and exhaustive events for which the assessor provides subjective probabilities. We show that assessed...