We provide a novel framework and empirical results to understand the relation between profitability growth and returns. By connecting a concave profit function to a standard valuation framework, we argue that if growth-rate risk carries a positive risk premium, firms with higher current...

This study examines the role of differences in firms' propensity to meet earnings expectations in explaining why firms with high analyst forecast dispersion experience relatively low future stock returns. We first demonstrate that the negative relation between dispersion and returns is...

This study examines the role of expectations management in explaining why firms with high dispersion in analyst forecasts experience relatively low future stock returns. We first demonstrate that the negative relation between dispersion and returns is concentrated around earnings announcements...

This study presents evidence suggesting that investors do not fully unravel predictable pessimism in sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts. We show that measures of prior consensus and individual analyst forecast pessimism are predictive of both the sign of firms' earnings surprises and the...