We present a probabilistic forecast for the immigrant population of Norway and their Norwegian-born children ("second generation") broken down by age, sex, and three types of country background: 1. West European countries plus the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; 2. East...

The Scaled Model of Error has gained considerable popularity during the past ten years as a device for computing probabilistic population forecasts of the cohort-component type. In this report we investigate how sensitive probabilistic population forecasts produced by means of the Scaled Model...

The aim of this article is to review a number of issues related to uncertain population forecasts, with a focus on world population. Why are these forecasts uncertain? Population forecasters traditionally follow two approaches when dealing with this uncertainty, namely scenarios (forecast...