In the academic debate there is a broad consensus that house price fluctuations have a substantial impact on financial stability and real economic activity. Therefore, it is important to have timely information on actual and expected house price developments. The aim of this paper is to measure...

In the academic debate there is a broad consensus that house price fluctuations have a substantial impact on financial stability and real economic activity. Therefore, it is important to have timely information on actual and expected house price developments. The aim of this paper is to measure...

The paper presents a foresight analysis methodology and its empirical application in the context of housing market. This work was developed in the context of a wider research project, "Drivers Of housiNg demand in Portuguese Urban sysTem" - DONUT, which analyses the Portuguese housing market....

This paper defines a measure of net housing demand or supply which allows the calculation of a long, high frequency time series, whose principal use is intended to be in a multivariate residential property price forecasting model. The series is easily and inexpensively replicable. We formulate...

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting demand and supply activities. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework and using the quarterly US data...

We show that house prices from Aberdeen in the UK improve in- and out-of-sample oil price forecasts. The improvements are of a similar magnitude to those attained using macroeconomic indicators. We explain these forecast improvements with the dominant role of the oil industry in Aberdeen. House...

We examine the accuracy of survey-based expectations of the Chilean exchange rate relative to the US dollar. Our out-of-sample analysis reveals that survey-based forecasts outperform the Driftless Random Walk (DRW) in terms of Mean Squared Prediction Error at several forecasting horizons. This...

In this paper we show that the MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index has the ability to predict base metal prices. We use both in-sample and out-of-sample exercises to conduct such examination. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the present-value model for stock-price...

I use data from both the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Livingston Survey to study the directional accuracy of United States housing starts forecasts. Using elements of relative operating characteristic ROC analysis, I find that forecasts contain information with respect to...

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both insample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...