In this paper, a simple model of information asymmetry is used to study central bank forecast publication. Central banks are assumed to choose between not publishing a forecast, publishing a forecast that conditions on current policy, publishing an unconditional forecast, or publishing both....

A common practice in studies using inflation forecasts is to approximate fixed-horizon forecasts with fixed-event ones. Here we show that this may be problematic. In a panel of US inflation forecast data that allows us to compare the two, the approximation results in a mean absolute...

Well anchored inflation expectations are considered to be a reflection of credible monetary policy. In the past, anchoring has been assessed using either long-run inflation surveys or break-even inflation rates on financial assets with long maturities. But neither of these is ideal. Here we...

Standard models of international risk sharing with complete asset markets predict a positive association between relative consumption growth and real exchange-rate depreciations across countries. The striking lack of evidence for this link - the consumption/real-exchange-rate anomaly or...