Bayesian experts with a common prior that are exposed to different types of evidence possibly make contradicting probabilistic forecasts. A policy maker who receives the forecasts must aggregate them in the best way possible. This is a challenge whenever the policy maker is not familiar with the...

We study the problem of testing an expert whose theory has a learnable and predictive parametric representation, as do standard processes used in statistics. We design a test in which the expert is required to submit a date T by which he will have learned enough to deliver a sharp, testable...

Consider a finite-state stochastic process governed by an unknown objective probability distribution. Observing the system, a forecaster assigns subjective probabilities to future states. The resulting subjective forecast merges to the objective distribution if, with time, the forecasted...