This book closely examines the concept and theory of "future" from a multidisciplinary perspective, focusing on the practice of forecasting, especially in its interaction with complexity. It highlights the relations between forecasting, decision-making and strategy, mixing technical arguments...

Prior studies document that managers consider a variety of costs and benefits in their decisions to initiate earnings guidance. Using both an abstract experiment and a survey of experienced financial managers, we provide evidence that managerial overconfidence may also contribute to the decision...

What Do We Mean by "the Future"? -- Risk and Uncertainty -- Values and the Future -- Why Do We Want to Know the Future? -- Prediction and Planning -- Seeing the Future: Ideas from Philosophy, Linguistics, and Sociology -- Complexity and the Future -- Analytics and the Future -- Imagination and...

Firms often issue disaggregated earnings forecasts, and prior research reveals benefits to doing so. However, we hypothesize and experimentally find that the benefits of disaggregated forecasts do not necessarily carry over to the time of actual earnings announcements. Rather, disaggregated...

This paper independently replicates the results of the survey of experienced financial managers reported in section 4 of Libby and Rennekamp (2012). Using the same questions as Libby and Rennekamp (2012), we survey 110 experienced managers to examine their beliefs about the relationship between...