The purpose of this paper is to show that the effect of the zero-correlation assumption in combining forecasts can be huge, and that ignoring (positive) correlation can lead to confidence bands around the forecast combination that are much too narrow. In the typical case where three or more...

This paper looks at combining expert forecasts for the US macro data from Bloomberg. Contrary to Genre et al. (2013) (who analyzed the European case), the finding is that we can improve upon the simple benchmarks such as mean or median. To achieve this improvement one needs to identify a small...

Expert forecast combination—the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple subject-matter experts— is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research in this area has exclusively concentrated on local combination methods, which handle separate but related forecasting...

AbstractForecast combination—the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple experts or models—is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research on economic forecasting has concentrated on local combination methods, which handle separate but related forecasting tasks in...