This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59 billion. The study shows with very high statistical...

Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) is a method to remove optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation in cost and time to completion forecasting of projects and programmes. In September 2012, the Development Bureau of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region commissioned a...

Private and public mega projects — whether new plant facilities, IT systems, railways, or the Olympics — frequently entail dramatic cost and schedule overruns. Root causes are behavioral biases, such as optimism and deliberate deception, accompanied by principal–agent issues and a lack of...