To assess the effects of the EMU on inflation rate dynamics of its member states, the inflation rate series for 21 European countries are investigated for structural changes. To capture changes in mean, variance, and skewness of inflation rates, a generalized logistic model is adopted and...

In a recent article, Bai and Perron (2003, Journal of Applied Econometrics) present a comprehensive discussion of computational aspects of multiple structural change models along with several empirical examples. Here, we report on the results of a replication study using the R statistical...

The classical approach to testing for structural change employs retrospective tests using a historical data set of a given length. Here we consider a wide array of fluctuation-type tests in a monitoring situation – given a history period for which a regression relationship is known to be...

The paper presents an approach to the analysis of data that contains (multiple) structural changes in a linear regression setup. We implement various strategies which have been suggested in the literature for testing against structural changes as well as a dynamic programming algorithm for the...

Raw ensemble forecasts display large errors in predicting precipitation amounts and its forecast uncertainty, especially in mountainous regions where local e.ects are often not captured. Therefore, statistical post-processing is typically applied to obtain automatically corrected weather...

A probabilistic forecasting method to predict thunderstorms in the European Eastern Alps is developed. A statistical model links lightning occurrence from the ground-based ALDIS detection network to a large set of direct and derived variables from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. The...

Non-homogeneous regression models are widely used to statistically post-process numerical ensemble weather prediction models. Such regression models are capable of forecasting full probability distributions and correct for ensemble errors in the mean and variance. To estimate the corresponding...

Low visibility conditions enforce special procedures that reduce the operational flight capacity at airports. Accurate and probabilistic forecasts of these capacity-reducing lowvisibility procedure (lvp) states help the air traffic management to optimize flight planning and regulation. In this...