This paper aims to extend recent work on the term structure of interest rates by establishing, in the context of the medium term UK interbank market, forecasting models which make use of market spreads as error correction terms. These models are then used within a trading scenario to test the...

This paper examines the Delphi technique critically to determine whether it succeeds in alleviating the 'process loss' typical of interacting groups. After briefly reviewing the technique, we go on to consider problems with Delphi from two perspectives. First, we examine methodological and...

Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Prologue -- Chapter 1: Profit from Accurate Forecasting -- 1.1 The Importance of Demand Forecasting -- 1.2 When Is a Forecast Not a Forecast? -- 1.3 Ways of Presenting Forecasts -- 1.3.1 Forecasts as Probability Distributions --...

were obtained by using the system's facility for judgmentally overriding the automatic statistical forecasts. Carrying out the judgmental interventions involved considerable management effort as part of an S & OP process, yet these often only served to reduce forecast accuracy. This study uses...

Naïve 1 forecasts are often used as a benchmark when assessing the accuracy of a set of forecasts. A ratio is obtained to show the upper bound of a forecasting method's accuracy relative to naïve 1 forecasts when the mean squared error is used to measure accuracy. Formulae for the ratio are...

Measuring bias is important as it helps identify flaws in quantitative forecasting methods or judgmental forecasts. It can, therefore, potentially help improve forecasts. Despite this, bias tends to be under represented in the literature: many studies focus solely on measuring accuracy. Methods...