managers alike. Both professions have found it increasingly difficult to forecast savings deposit flows. This article explores … models of the savings deposit market. To achieve this aim, I use the so-called FMP (MPS) macro model used by the Federal … savings bank in the US. I find that economists failed to find timeless determinants for the market for savings deposits …

We present an accurate and efficient method for Bayesian forecasting of two financial risk measures, Value-at-Risk and …-year-ahead. The latter has recently attracted considerable attention due to the different properties of short term risk and long run … risk. The key insight behind our importance sampling based approach is the sequential construction of marginal and …