Financial strength ratings (FSRs) have become more significant particularly since the recent financial crisis of 2007-09 where rating agencies failed to forecast defaults and the downgrade of some banks. The aim of this paper is to predict Capital Intelligence banks' financial strength ratings...

We propose a novel method to estimate risk-neutral quantiles that uses sorting to minimize an objective function given by a convex combination of call and put option prices over the range of available strike prices. We demonstrate that this new method significantly improves the accuracy of...

This paper considers the problem of forecasting inflation in the United States, the euro area and the United Kingdom in the presence of possible structural breaks and changing parameters. We examine a range of moving window techniques that have been proposed in the literature. We extend previous...