The track record of a sixteen-year history of density forecasts of state tax revenue in Iowa is studied, and potential improvements sought through a search for better performing "priors" similar to that conducted two decades ago for point forecasts by Doan, Litterman, and Sims (Econometric...

The paper describes a relative entropy procedure for imposing moment restrictions on simulated forecast distributions from a variety of models. Starting from an empirical forecast distribution for some variables of interest, the technique generates a new empirical distribution that satisfies a...