This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables. We apply Bayesian … values of inflation, a host of real activity data, term structure data, nominal data and surveys. In this model average we … affect any inflation forecast model. The different versions of our framework are used to model U.S. PCE deflator and GDP …

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … inflation, a host of real-activity data, term structure data, nominal data, and surveys. In each individual specification, we … deflator inflation rates for the United States in the post-World War II period. Over the full 1960-2008 sample, the framework …

Under the Basel II regulatory framework non-negligible statistical problems arise when backtesting risk measures. In …. According to Escanciano and Olmo (2010, 2011) these problems persist when incorporating estimation and model risk by adjusting … adequacy of Value at Risk measures. One main finding indicates that backtests of all classes show heavy size distortions. These …