We propose a novel time-series econometric framework to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in real time by combining polling data, economic fundamentals, and political prediction market prices. Our model estimates the joint dynamics of voter preferences across states. Applying our...

We combine self-collected historical data from 1867 to 1907 with CRSP data from 1926 to 2012, to examine the risk and return over the past 140 years of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies - momentum. We find that momentum has earned abnormally high risk-adjusted returns - a...

The development of models for variables sampled at different frequencies has attracted substantial interest in the recent literature. In this article, we discuss classical and Bayesian methods of estimating mixed-frequency VARs, and use them for forecasting and structural analysis. We also...