This paper analyses the forecasting power of weekly futures prices at Nord Pool. The forecasting power of futures prices is compared to an ARIMAX model of the spot price. The time series model contains lagged external variables such as: temperature, precipitation, reservoir levels and the basis...

This paper presents the first comparison of the accuracy of density forecasts for stock prices. Six sets of forecasts are evaluated for DJIA stocks, across four forecast horizons. Two forecasts are risk-neutral densities implied by the Black-Scholes and Heston models. The third set are...

Forecasting hourly electricity prices and their characteristic properties is a core challenge for energy generation companies and trading houses. The short-term marketing and purchase of electricity is usually managed with standardized products traded on different markets and with specific...

This paper uses high-frequency real-time spot prices and day-ahead forward prices from the eastern hub of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) electricity market to calculate, describe, and forecast realized spot price volatility. Using Heterogeneous Autoregressive models of realized...

We examine the information content of the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) when forecasting realized volatility in the WTI futures market. Additionally, we study whether other market variables, such as volume, open interest, daily returns, bid-ask spread and the slope of the futures curve,...

Nonlinear autoregressive Markov regime-switching models are intuitive and frequently proposed time series approaches for the modelling of electricity spot prices. In this paper such models are compared to an ordinary linear autoregressive model with regard to their forecast performance. The...

In this paper, we study the methods of combining different volatility forecasts using various GARCH models. Given that the major risk exposure for many investors in energy is the volatility of the electricity price, our motivation stems from the fact that there is no single best model for...

The recently proposed in the energy literature approach to short-term electricity price forecasting, based on explicit accounting for the long-term price dynamic (i.e. its independent modeling), has demonstrated its efficiency in gaining forecast accuracy. But the practical implementation of...

The paper features an analysis of causal relations between the VIX, S&P500, and the realised volatility (RV) of the S&P500 sampled at 5 minute intervals, plus the application of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model to forecast the VIX. Causal relations are analysed using the recently...

The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator...