In diesem Papier werden eine Reihe von Frühindikatoren für die Entwicklung der Ausrüstungs-, Wirtschaftsbau- und Wohnungsbauinvestitionen in Deutschland untersucht. Die Indikatoren werden auf Basis theoretischer Erwägungen oder wegen ihres technischen Zusammenhangs zur Investitionstätigkeit...

The paper investigates the sources of macroeconomic forecast errors in Germany. The predictions of the so-called "six leading" research institutes are analyzed. The forecast errors are discussed within an aggregate demand/supply scheme. Structural Vector Autoregressive Models are estimated to...

Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2003 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are unbiased and weakly, but not strongly efficient. Besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality are found among...

The paper investigates a set of possible leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle using aggregated quarterly data. The theoretical plausibility, the behavior at business cycle turning points and the mean leads are analyzed. Furthermore, evidence from cross-correlations and...