We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor''s, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive...

The paper applies quantile regression technique, specifically, quantile vector autoregression to stochastic debt sustainability analysis (DSA) and the construction of public debt fan charts. Stochastic approach to DSA typically uses standard ordinary least squares vector autoregression (OLS VAR)...

The paper focuses on impact of macroeconomic indicators on the development of public debt in Slovakia. The aim of the paper was to identify those macroeconomic indicators which influence the most significantly public debt in Slovakia and to elaborate and verify simple model for public debt...