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Information illusion : placebic information and stock price estimates

Oehler, Andreas; Horn, Matthias; Wendt, Stefan - 2020

This study analyzes investors' perception of placebic information and its impact on stock price estimates. We initiate a questionnaire-based stock price forecast competition among 196 undergraduate students in business administration. We show that placebic information increases the perceived...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012426318

Overpricing persistence in experimental asset markets with intrinsic uncertainty

Sornette, Didier; Andraszewicz, Sandra; Wu, Ke; Murphy, … - 2020

To study coordination in complex social systems such as financial markets, the authors introduce a new prediction market set-up that accounts for fundamental uncertainty. Nonetheless, the market is designed so that its total value is known, and thus its rationality can be evaluated. In two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012231540

Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory

Pfajfar, Damjan - 2012

This paper compares the behavior of subject' uncertainty in different monetary policy environments when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. We find that inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of interval forecasts than inflation forecast targeting. We also...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114771

The Predictive Power of Risk Elicitation Tasks

Garagnani, Michele - 2020

-choice tasks for elicitation of risk attitudes. First, I compare the investment task of Gneezy and Potters (1997) with the standard …This work reports an online experiment with a general-population sample examining the performance of budget …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823266

Risks of observable and unobservable biases in artificial intelligence predicting consumer choice

Teleaba, Florian; Popescu, Sorin; Olaru, Marieta; … - In: Amfiteatru economic : an economic and business research … 23 (2021) 56, pp. 102-119

Companies are increasingly adopting Artificial Intelligence (AI) today. Recently however debates started over the risk … incipient and focuses on observable biases. We provide a short synthesis of cognitive biases and their potential risk of being … replicated in AI-based choice prediction. We also discuss for the first time the risk of unobservable biases, which affect choice …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012821258