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We use a dynamic panel Tobit model with heteroskedasticity to generate point, set, and density forecasts for a large … and residential real estate loans, comparing various versions of the panel Tobit model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012846192
We develop a panel data count model combined with a latent Gaussian spatio-temporal heterogenous state process to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014135197
panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients under … Carlo study. In an empirical application we use the predictor to forecast revenues for a large panel of bank holding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014034574
We use a dynamic panel Tobit model with heteroskedasticity to generate forecasts for a large cross‐section of short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014306360
We use the framework developed in Richardson et al. (2004) to identify country, firm and analyst characteristics that we expect to be associated with the prevalence of the analyst walk-down forecast pattern. Based on a large sample of 50,649 analysts covering 33,645 firms from 46 countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012943482
This paper investigates whether media climate change concern (MCCC) predicts stock market excess returns by using data for 44 markets. We show that the predictability of the MCCC index is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the international equity market - the higher MCCC index predicts lower market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013297648
In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic forecasts of the Consensus Forecasts for 12 countries over the period from 1996 to 2006 regarding bias and information efficiency. A pooled approach is employed which permits the evaluation of all forecasts for each target variable over 24 horizons...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010297948
The study examines the predictability of 48 sovereign bond markets based on a strategy of 27,000 technical trading rules. These rules represent four popular trading rule classes, they are: moving average, filtering, support and resistance, and channel breakout rules, with numerous variants in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012895038
Global recovery is progressing more slowly than was indicated in 2020 due to high coronavirus rates and related economic restrictions in Europe and Japan. Recently, a disparate picture has been forming: In the advanced economies, declining infection rates and continued progress in vaccination...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012586104
This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industrialized and developing countries? (2) How well do forecasters predict recessions?...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013212035