information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at …

information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at … ; forecasts ; forecast evaluation …

forecasts (bottom-up approaches). Overall, all methods perform better than a simple benchmark for short horizons (up to three … out-perform bottom-up ones for real variables, but not for prices. Finally, when country-specific forecasts are adjusted … to match direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor …

This paper develops a set of time series models to provide short-term forecasts (6 to 18 months ahead) of international … trade both at the global level and for selected regions. Our results compare favourably to other forecasts, notably by the …

from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors …

provide extensive backtests of hourly and daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasts that are regarded as … model's variance and covariance forecasts using average scores generated from proper univariate and multivariate scoring … rules, there is no evidence of superior performance of variance and covariance forecasts generated by GARCH models, using …