. For this purpose, we develop a novel long-run forecast framework based on enodogenous growth theory with human and fixed … capital. A central result is a pronounced projected decrease in human capital, substantially weighing on the long-run GDP …

predictive power for GDP data revisions. A positive (negative) error in Okun's Law in real time implies that GDP will be later … about the true state of real economic activity also helps to improve GDP forecasts in the near term. Our findings add a new … a change in potential GDP, the equilibrium unemployment rate, or the use of labor's intensive margin. …