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The wisdom of crowds : applying Condorcet's jury theorem to forecasting US presidential elections
Murr, Andreas E. - In: International journal of forecasting 31 (2015) 3, pp. 916-929
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474728
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How they lost the presidency
Walker, David - In: Applied economics 50 (2018) 38, pp. 4113-4121
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012060709
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Vote self-prediction hardly predicts who will vote, and is (misleadingly) unbiased
Rogers, Todd; Aida, Masa - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009736903
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Forecasting elections
Vaughan Williams, Leighton; Reade, J. James - In: Journal of forecasting 35 (2016) 4, pp. 308-328
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011580765
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Biased forecasts to affect voting decisions? : the Brexit case
Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2019
influence voting outcomes. We develop a probabilistic voting model in which voters do not have complete information about the … forecasters with economic interest (stakes) and influence to publish biased forecasts prior to a referendum. We test our theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011990008
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Biased forecasts to affect voting decisions? : the Brexit case
Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2019
uence voting outcomes. We develop a probabilistic voting model in which voters do not have complete information about the … forecasters with economic interest (stakes) and in uence to publish biased forecasts prior to a referendum. We test our theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011984037
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Can we vote with our tweet? : on the perennial difficulty of election forecasting with social media
Huberty, Mark - In: International journal of forecasting 31 (2015) 3, pp. 992-1007
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474765
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Polls to probabilities : comparing prediction markets and opinion polls
Reade, J. James; Vaughan Williams, Leighton - In: International journal of forecasting 35 (2019) 1, pp. 336-350
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300651
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Electoral cycles in macroeconomic forecasts
Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - In: Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 202 (2022), pp. 307-340
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013552439
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Electoral cycles in macroeconomic forecasts
Cipullo, Davide; Reslow, André - 2021
that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012514965