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We ask whether option prices contain information on the likelihood and direction of jumps in the underlying stock prices. Applying the partial least squares (PLS) approach to the entire surface of the implied volatilities (IV), we show that option prices can successfully predict downward jumps...
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) index call and put options with different volatility forecasting approaches. Since the volatility is the key parameter in … pricing options, GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity), implied volatility, historical volatility …, and implied volatility index (VBI) are used to determine the best volatility approach for pricing options according to …
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